The Big Picture: What Lies Ahead?

For those of you transitioning to Rigden Capital Strategies, we want to assure you that while we’re working to relink your accounts, we’re keeping a close eye on the markets. We expect to have Client Agreements ready to link to your accounts within the next few days. For our planning clients, we’ll continue using RightCapital for your financial planning needs. Thank you for your continued support—we’re excited to work with you in this new chapter.

We want to share our perspective on the road ahead. While a recession isn’t our base case, we’re mindful that conditions can shift quickly, potentially changing our outlook. The “US exceptionalism” story—where the U.S. economy stands head and shoulders above the rest—has lost some of its shine lately. Recent policy moves from China and Germany are closing the gap, and that’s something we’re watching closely.

Focusing on the U.S., here’s what we’re tracking and what it means for your portfolio:

1. The Economy, Especially Jobs: The labor market is a key indicator for us. A sudden drop in employment would be a red flag we can’t ignore. We’re keeping a close eye on weekly jobless claims—a spike in filings would signal caution. Hiring has already slowed, so even a modest uptick in layoffs could weaken payroll numbers and push unemployment higher, impacting markets and your investments.

2. The Federal Reserve’s Next Moves: Don’t expect the Fed to step in with a quick fix if things soften. Inflation has been stubbornly sticky, pulling their focus back to price stability over job growth. Trade policy uncertainty—think tariffs—is also keeping them on the sidelines, which quietly tightens financial conditions. Unless inflation cools further or the job market takes a sharper hit, the Fed will likely hold steady. Their March 19, 2025, meeting will give us a clearer read—watch for shifts in Fed Chair Powell’s tone or their economic projections.

3. Corporate Earnings and Outlook: Uncertainty could start weighing on company profits. We’ve seen hints of this already (e.g., Delta Airlines). Stock prices often move before earnings reflect reality, and markets can overreact. A broad earnings decline would be troubling, but if estimates just flatline—pausing rather than plunging—we’d see it as a yellow flag, not a crisis. We’ll keep you posted on how this unfolds.

4. Trump Policy and Market Hopes: Markets are itching for a “Trump Put”—a signal he’ll ease up on tariff threats or his DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) push. We might see a softer tone emerge, but likely only if negotiating partners offer concessions—Trump rarely backs down without a win. So far, the market pullback has been orderly, more of a steady drift than a panic. If a U.S. recession were imminent, we’d expect European markets to sound the alarm too. The old adage, “When the U.S. sneezes, the world catches a cold,” still feels relevant.

   
   

Our Commitment to You

As of today, March 14, 2025, we’re navigating these dynamics with your goals in mind. No recession is baked into our strategy yet, but we’re staying vigilant. We’ll keep you informed as these factors evolve and adjust your plan as needed to protect and grow your wealth. Please don’t hesitate to reach out with questions—we’re here for you.

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Rigden Capital Strategies is a fee-only fiduciary firm dedicated to providing personalized wealth management and financial planning services. We take a client-first approach, ensuring that every strategy we develop is tailored to individual financial goals, risk tolerance, and life circumstances. Our comprehensive services include investment management, retirement planning, tax-efficient strategies, and estate planning guidance. By integrating active and passive investment approaches, we help clients build resilient portfolios designed to weather market cycles while optimizing long-term growth. With a commitment to transparency and ongoing collaboration, we strive to be a trusted financial partner, helping clients navigate complex financial decisions with confidence and clarity.

Disclosure: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, legal, or tax advice. While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the completeness or reliability of the information provided. Investment decisions should be based on individual circumstances, and we recommend consulting a qualified professional before implementing any financial, legal, or tax strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risks, including potential loss of principal.