Market Update

Geopolitical Escalation and Capital Markets From a historical perspective, geopolitical shocks have often created short-term volatility but have not always resulted in lasting structural damage to capital markets. Initial reactions in risk assets can be sharp, but those moves frequently moderate as investors reassess fundamentals. Recent headlines regarding leadership changes in Iran and reports surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have understandably unsettled markets. However,

As we close the books on 2025, investors find themselves standing before a familiar "Wall of Worry." Headlines are filled with anxieties ranging from government debt levels and political changes to lingering fears about inflation. It is natural to feel cautious in this environment. However, experienced investors know that markets often climb this wall, performing well even—and sometimes especially—when the news feels uncertain. This year, that climb is being aided by a signif

Lately, many investors have been concerned about tech stocks dropping and talk of a big "bubble" ready to pop. But let's take a moment to breathe—it's not as bad as it seems. What we're seeing is just a normal pause where people rethink their excitement. Stocks have been strongly climbing, and these little hiccups help keep things from getting out of hand (while letting some steam off). Let's break it down simply: cut through the hype, look at the real numbers, and see why th

As anticipated following its most recent policy meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in its benchmark interest rate today. This marks the second consecutive monthly cut, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%–4.00%. In a complementary move, the Fed also signaled it will halt the reduction of its balance sheet holdings starting December 1, effectively stabilizing its size after months of gradual shrinkage. As we noted in prior update

Key Takeaway: Investor sentiment is bullish but not euphoric, with recent market discussions centered on valuations and potential risks in AI-related financing. While some cautionary signals are emerging, markets reflect optimism for growth, though a short-term pullback may be healthy after a significant rally. Market Context and Observations: Current Market Dynamics: Amid a lack of fresh economic data, markets have been trending upward, prompting renewed focus on valuations.

In the volatile world of financial markets, few periods capture the tension between exuberance and caution quite like the summer of 2025. August delivered yet another robust performance for risk assets, with small- and mid-cap stocks, alongside value-oriented plays, stealing the spotlight. Even bonds joined the party, posting positive returns in the wake of July's CPI data and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks at Jackson Hole. The S&P 500's ascent to 6,5

As we navigate the complexities of 2025, investors face a landscape defined not just by cyclical economic swings but by profound structural shifts. Four megatrends—artificial intelligence (AI), infrastructure buildout, demographic changes, and deglobalization—stand out as transformative forces with the potential to drive outsized returns while introducing new risks. These trends, highlighted in recent analyses from firms like Morgan Stanley and Natixis Investment Managers, ar

As an investment advisory firm, we are always keeping a close eye on economic indicators that can impact your portfolio. The latest labor market data, hot off the press from August 2025, paints a sobering picture that demands our attention. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent focus on the labor side of the Fed’s dual mandate—price stability and maximum employment—has been validated by this data. Let’s break down the key takeaways, what they mean for markets, and how

We are writing to provide you with a comprehensive update following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent address at the Jackson Hole symposium. This annual event is a critical moment for gauging the Fed’s perspective on the economy, and this year’s speech was particularly significant given rising concerns about labor market conditions and tariff-induced inflationary pressures. Powell’s remarks signaled a likely shift toward monetary easing, potentially starting with a

Overview July 2025 saw a dynamic U.S. market landscape shaped by mixed economic signals, corporate earnings, and Federal Reserve commentary. Investors navigated a complex environment with robust consumer spending, moderating inflation, and uncertainty around tariffs and monetary policy. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit record highs earlier in the month but faced volatility after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell tempered expectations for imminent rate cuts. Below is a d

Overview The July 2025 jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released on August 1, has significantly altered the labor market outlook. Following June’s optimistic signals of stabilization, July’s data delivered a stark reversal, highlighting persistent cooling and heightened downside risks. Below, we analyze key takeaways and their implications for investors. Key Takeaways from the July Jobs Report Establishment Survey Nonfarm Payrolls: July added just 7

Our Perspective Geopolitical events, like the current tensions between Israel and Iran, often trigger short-term market volatility. Historically, these reactions are brief, and markets typically return to their prior trends. We expect this situation to follow a similar path. What’s Happening Hostilities between Israel and Iran have escalated, raising questions about potential impacts on global markets. Below, we highlight the key risks and their possible effects on your inves

Introduction The U.S. labor market has shown resilience amid economic challenges, but recent data indicates a steady cooling trend. This report provides a detailed, client-friendly overview of current labor market dynamics, broader economic indicators, and their implications for investors and policymakers, using a bullet-point format for clarity. Labor Market Overview Headline Strength, Underlying Weakness: The latest nonfarm payrolls report exceeded expectations, triggering

We want to provide you with a clear and concise update on the recent U.S.-China tariff de-escalation and its implications for the economy and your investments. Here’s what you need to know and our perspective on how to position your portfolio moving forward. Key Developments Tariff Relief: The U.S. has reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China cut its retaliatory tariffs from 125% to 10%, with an additional 20% fentanyl-related tariff, totaling 30%. This

Key Data Points April's labor market data showed resilience amid cooling trends: Non-farm Payrolls: +177k (vs. 138k expected, 120k whisper). Private Payrolls: +167k (vs. 125k expected). Revisions: Prior two months cut by 58k. Hours Worked: Flat at 34.3 (upwardly revised). Average Hourly Earnings: +0.2% MoM, 3.8% YoY (below expectations). Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2%. Prime Age Employment Rate: Rebounded after two-month decline. The report reflects a "Goldilocks" scenario

For those of you transitioning to Rigden Capital Strategies, we want to assure you that while we’re working to relink your accounts, we’re keeping a close eye on the markets. We expect to have Client Agreements ready to link to your accounts within the next few days. For our planning clients, we’ll continue using RightCapital for your financial planning needs. Thank you for your continued support—we’re excited to work with you in this new chapter. We want to share our perspec

Investing can feel like a rollercoaster, especially when economic news and speculation about the state of the economy shift. Our advice? Stay disciplined—stick to your long-term plan and don’t let short-term noise throw you off. We’re watching the markets closely, analyzing the latest data, and adjusting our outlook, and rebalancing the portfolio as needed. If you’ve got questions or want to talk about your portfolio, don’t hesitate to reach out. Now, here’s our updated take