History tells us 73% of the time the markets are positive
- Joshua Rigden
- Mar 12
- 2 min read
Updated: Jun 25
Market uncertainty is at the forefront, and the volatility is evident as prices swing wildly. The VIX, often called the market's "fear gauge," reached a year-to-date peak on Tuesday (3/4/25), surging over 50% in the past month alone. While we could dive into a flurry of statistics, let’s step back and look at the broader context:
A 5% market pullback is fairly typical, occurring about three times a year on average. A larger 10% correction tends to happen roughly once annually.
Looking at historical data since 1928, the S&P 500 has seen:
71 positive years and 26 negative years.
This translates to the market rising 73% of the time and falling 27%.
Out of those up years, 38 have delivered returns exceeding 20%, meaning that when the market does go up, it achieves over 20% returns 54% of the time.
Despite the current uncertainty and potential for continued turbulence, historical trends suggest that things are likely to work out in the long run. The numbers remind us to stay grounded amid the storm!
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Disclosure: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, legal, or tax advice. While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the completeness or reliability of the information provided. Investment decisions should be based on individual circumstances, and we recommend consulting a qualified professional before implementing any financial, legal, or tax strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risks, including potential loss of principal.
